Feeding the World

As I wait for IRENE to come, with sump pump and tarp at the ready, I’m reviewing some old-but-not-yet-read digests from Peak Oil News. Here are some disturbing thought from the May 31 2001 issue, from Farmer’s Weekly, written by Tyson Cattle (no kidding).  In essence, the writer is reporting on a visit by Tyson Cribb, noted science journalist, who was in Washington, Australia giving a presentation on Peak Oil and Agriculture: “Where is Agriculture Heading in the next 20 years?"

Cribb is peak-oil savvy, and is wondering how farmers will feed the world, given that our whole agriculture system (like every other modern system) presumes endless supplies of cheap fossil-based energy. 

Some excerpts from Cribb’s talk follow.

"Today the world faces looming scarcities of just about everything required to produce high yields of food, that is, water, land, nutrients, oil, technology, skills, fish and stable climates.

"This isn't a simple problem which can be treated with techno fixes or national policy changes."

"To put it another way, between 1990 and 2005, world demand for food has grown 15 times faster than the area of land being farmed."

"If, due to an oil crisis or local war, the endless river of trucks carrying food failed to arrive even for a week or two, what would their citizens eat?

• "In developed countries we trash from a third to half of all food produced," he said.
• "In developing countries we lose similar amounts post-harvest.
• "Half the achievements of the world's farmers are going to landfill.
• "While a billion starve, we waste food enough for three billion.

"Our grandparents would say we are idiots and they would be right."

Cribb suggested that Australia begin devoting a larger percentage of its funds for agricultural research.  He notes that the world spends $1.5 trillion each year on weapons, but only $40 billion on agriculture research.

Rather than wait for the research, I suggest this is a good time to start planting annual gardens – if you have sunlight, you can supply the rest—to see just how difficult but satisfying gardening can be.

Last Harvest - December Salad

In my earlier post, I lamented the meager harvest for all my organic urban gardening efforts and hoped for better times next year (don't we all, gardeners or not?). Weeds had overtaken everything; harvest was pitiful.

Well here's a little update. A month ago I harvested 15 pounds of sweet potatoes, just before the annual scourge of the leaves. Ordinarily I spend over two months raking, moving the piles to the front for DC leaf pickup, a total of leaves at least 5 feet high, 5 feet wide, and maybe 25 feet long. A huge mess. This year I found a way to make lemonade out of the leaf lemons. Instead of using a leaf blower to blow them, I raked them into easy small piles every few feet. I then used the "reverse switch" and a pouch on my blower and mulched the leaves. This divide-and-conqueor strategy was so much easier to deal with, and instead of piling them up for the city to truck away, i've made beautiful layers of mulch, a winter blanket over the perennials, raised beds, asparagas, and everything else.

And one immediate benefit: the salad you see above. I think this must be a DC gardener's record, harvesting a fresh organic salad on the 10th of December. I'd picked the last of my tomatoes a couple weeks ago and let it ripen on a sill. I'd planted the lettuce in August, but mulched it with the leaves and covered them whenever a frost was forecast.

Tonight I picked enough lettuce for two bowls, and have covered the plants back over with leaf mulch to see if they can survive the below 20 degree F predicted temperature this evening. (Where is global warming when you need it? Can't help asking that.)

So did I transform the leaf scourge to leaf blessing by living without oil? Not completely. Pepco burned something (or used Nuclear power) to generate the electricity. Still, the city trucks didn't have to cart my 600 or so cubic feet of leaves to who-knows-where. I'll bet my net energy use was less than the city would have spent carting them all away, and I've now got a great layer of mulch for next year's garden.

It Aint Easy Being Green

Green Challenges

I try harder than most both to live an environmentally frugal life and to prepare for an era of fossil fuel scarcity. I garden (fruit trees, berries, vegetables, flowers), and have been gardening for over 40 years. I have a compost bin, and I grow worms in my garage (to reduce waste to the sewer and waste systems). I bought 5 expensive “Earth boxes,” essentially potting-mix based hydroponic systems, including wheels to move them around to the best areas of the yard depending on season.

Outside of my gardening efforts, I have replaced every light possible with CFLs (and will use LEDs when available). I’ve added insulation to the attic. We use a portable outdoor clothesline. I have a sun oven. We drive a Prius, when we drive; I have used only public transit (D.C. bus and metro) for the past 4 years. I could go on and on.

And I’m discouraged.

Whether it’s due to climate change, or just the gardener’s perennial luck of the draw, my gardening yields in recent years have been at best mediocre. Animals (from deer to raccoons to rats) have taken their toll. I’ve built a deer fence (that the deer smashed into and I repaired). I (hate to admit) I have put out a rat trap. Still, the birds, raccoons and squirrels take their pick of the best of everything from berries to tomatoes. And they’re getting slim pickings too.

This year I decided to try planting more “heritage” varieties of tomatoes and lettuce (for starters). I assumed they would be more resistant to variations in the weather, they would not need as much (or any) artificial fertilizer, and they would taste better than hybrid varieties. That was the theory. I’ve never had such skimpy yields; tomatoes with blossom end rot; the pumpkins and squash have no fruit set. I blame that (in part) on the nearly complete lack of bees.

And if everything worked fine and yielded as much as I used to get in New England, the effort would still be significant. And I’m willing to pay that price of effort, materials, etc. Now I pay the price and get very little in return.

No matter what the advertising brochures claim, the Earth Boxes, I hate to report, yield far less than simply planting veggies in the ground. CFL bulbs (especially the more expensive dimmable versions) burn out in as little as 3 months – not 5 years.

Recently I tried a different approach. I asked for a solar panel assessment, knowing I had some daytime shade. Result: You’d have to cut down all the trees around your house (illegal in D.C. unless the trees pose a danger or are diseased), since if one cell of one panel is shaded, the whole panel’s output is diminished. And if one panel’s output is diminished, the whole series work inefficiently. Just not worth the $25-$30 thousand investment, even though I know electric costs are going to skyrocket while electricity availability will become increasingly intermittent.

I also visit and read nearly every post on theoildrum.com, daily.For another wakeup call (if you need one), read “Gail the Actuary’s” post on the “oildrum,” at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4381, titled “The Path From Petroleum Shortages To Electricity Shortages .” If Gail is right (and she is certainly persuasive and informed), we can all look forward to a large assortment of unexpected consequences from peak oil supplies, including intermittent availability of electricity.

Here is an excerpt from Gail's recent post:

"The issue I see is that if we know we are very likely to have electrical difficulties within twenty years, it does not make sense to start a transformation to a more electrical society. For example, if we start building a lot of electric trains, we are likely to discover that that we don't have the electricity to operate them when they get built."

Now if I am working this hard to become a darker shade of green, and getting so little effort in return, what about the other 99% of society who probably either are ignoring peak oil issues or doing very little to prepare. If you think you can just dig up a patch in your back yard, buy some seeds, and haul in the veggies to supplement your grocery bill… good luck with that.

Still, I am something of a perennial optimist. I believe if you try hard enough to improve your processes, learn from past mistakes, and continue trying, you’ll both be better off and provide credible insights for others how to succeed when they decide to try out gardening or energy saving strategies. Or at least I hope it works out that way.

Sustainable living in DC, page 1

In her 17 May piece for MarketWatch, Carolyn Pritchard said:

“Tens of thousands of Mexicans took to the streets in January to protest tortilla prices as they soared to their highest levels in a decade as demand for corn... Such fervor is unlikely to sweep the streets of American cities anytime soon,” Prichard also quoted Ken Cassman, a professor of agronomy and horticulture at the University of Nebraska. Cassman said: "We're probably going to be abruptly going into a period where supply is much more balanced with demand so that small perturbations can cause a significant impact on food supply."

Hold that thought.

In 1915, the US horse population (for travel and farming) peaked at 25 million horses. 20% of the land was used to feed horses (think ethanol for horses). The US population was 100 million. Roads were muddy and stunk, but we got around and generally we had full bellies. Now there are 300 million residents in the US, many fewer (and larger) farms. Forget about how we’ll get around, how will we eat?

This chapter is about attempts in DC to live sustainably, particularly growing food as the perfect storm of climate change, ethanol production’s impact on food supply, inflation, and other issues force people to think about food security.

The story begins---

I grew up on a farm, and there has always been a little bit of farmer in me no matter where I lived. Moving to DC, I picked a place where I could cut down a few trees (before the city laws forbade it), get some sun (not as much as I really need), and began planting. I decided to try moving towards a path of sustainable gardening – composting, vermiculture, no pesticides, etc. This took me several years to perfect, so I know the other DC residents –if they have enough sunlight—will not catch onto this sustainable methodology quickly, or in less time than I did.

And here we are. Our attempt to boost ethanol production is sending food prices through the roof. Shoplifting is up, not for jewelry or property, but for food. People are hungry and angry. Forget the street people shaking cups outside Starbucks for loose change, they’re eyeing you and asking for a piece of fruit or some bread as you leave Safeway.

Compared to others, I have a nice supply of organically grown fruits, vegetables, and berries, but nowhere near enough for all our needs, and certainly not enough to last through the winter. My kids –formerly very picky eaters—now give me no grief about eating their vegetables. They’re helping me cultivate and harvest. And believe it or not, the perennial thieves are still here and even in greater numbers, in DC no less: the deer, rabbits, raccoons, squirrels, (rats) and birds. Nobody is thinking seriously of killing any of these critters to eat them, but I do remember the nice taste of venison back on the farm...